| Preface |
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xi | |
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PART ONE. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS |
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Paths of Political Development |
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1 | (14) |
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2 | (3) |
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5 | (3) |
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8 | (2) |
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10 | (4) |
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14 | (1) |
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15 | (33) |
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Democracy versus Nondemocracy |
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16 | (3) |
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Building Blocks of Our Approach |
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19 | (3) |
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22 | (1) |
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Our Theory of Democratization |
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23 | (7) |
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30 | (1) |
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Determinants of Democracy |
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31 | (11) |
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Political Identities and the Nature of Conflict |
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42 | (1) |
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43 | (3) |
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46 | (2) |
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What Do We Know about Democracy? |
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48 | (41) |
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48 | (3) |
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51 | (7) |
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Democracy, Inequality, and Redistribution |
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58 | (7) |
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65 | (1) |
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Social Unrest and Democratization |
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65 | (10) |
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75 | (5) |
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80 | (9) |
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PART TWO. MODELING POLITICS |
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89 | (29) |
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89 | (2) |
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Aggregating Individual Preferences |
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91 | (1) |
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Single-Peaked Preferences and the Median Voter Theorem |
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92 | (7) |
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99 | (14) |
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Democracy and Political Equality |
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113 | (4) |
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117 | (1) |
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118 | (55) |
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118 | (2) |
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Power and Constraints in Nondemocratic Politics |
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120 | (8) |
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Modeling Preferences and Constraints in Nondemocracies |
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128 | (5) |
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133 | (11) |
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A Simple Game of Promises |
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144 | (7) |
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151 | (10) |
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Incentive-Compatible Promises |
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161 | (10) |
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171 | (2) |
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PART THREE. THE CREATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF DEMOCRACY |
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173 | (48) |
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173 | (1) |
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The Role of Political Institutions |
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173 | (3) |
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Preferences over Political Institutions |
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176 | (1) |
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Political Power and Institutions |
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177 | (4) |
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A Static Model of Democratization |
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181 | (5) |
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Democratization or Repression? |
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186 | (7) |
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A Dynamic Model of Democratization |
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193 | (8) |
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Subgame Perfect Equilibria |
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201 | (2) |
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Alternative Political Identities |
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203 | (4) |
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207 | (1) |
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Power of the Elites in Democracy |
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207 | (4) |
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Ideological Preferences over Regimes |
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211 | (3) |
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Democratization in a Picture |
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214 | (1) |
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215 | (3) |
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218 | (3) |
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221 | (34) |
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221 | (3) |
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224 | (1) |
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225 | (6) |
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A Dynamic Model of the Creation and Consolidation of Democracy |
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231 | (15) |
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Alternative Political Identities |
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246 | (1) |
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246 | (1) |
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Power in Democracy and Coups |
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247 | (2) |
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Consolidation in a Picture |
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249 | (2) |
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251 | (2) |
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253 | (2) |
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PART FOUR. PUTTING THE MODELS TO WORK |
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The Role of the Middle Class |
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255 | (32) |
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255 | (4) |
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259 | (3) |
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Emergence of Partial Democracy |
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262 | (5) |
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From Partial to Full Democracy |
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267 | (6) |
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Repression: The Middle Class as a Buffer |
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273 | (5) |
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Repression: Softliners versus Hardliners |
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278 | (5) |
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The Role of the Middle Class in Consolidating Democracy |
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283 | (2) |
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285 | (2) |
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Economic Structure and Democracy |
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287 | (34) |
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287 | (3) |
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Economic Structure and Income Distribution |
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290 | (2) |
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292 | (1) |
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Capital, Land, and the Transition to Democracy |
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293 | (3) |
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Costs of Coup on Capital and Land |
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296 | (4) |
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Capital, Land, and the Burden of Democracy |
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300 | (7) |
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Conflict between Landowners and Industrialists |
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307 | (5) |
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Industrialists, Landowners, and Democracy in Practice |
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312 | (1) |
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313 | (3) |
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316 | (1) |
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Conjectures about Political Development |
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317 | (2) |
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319 | (2) |
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Globalization and Democracy |
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321 | (28) |
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321 | (4) |
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A Model of an Open Economy |
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325 | (6) |
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Political Conflict -- Democratic Consolidation |
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331 | (3) |
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Political Conflict -- Transition to Democracy |
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334 | (4) |
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338 | (5) |
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Increased Political Integration |
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343 | (1) |
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Alternative Assumptions about the Nature of International Trade |
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344 | (3) |
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347 | (2) |
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PART FIVE. CONCLUSIONS AND THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY |
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Conclusions and the Future of Democracy |
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349 | (12) |
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Paths of Political Development Revisited |
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349 | (6) |
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Extensions and Areas for Future Research |
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355 | (3) |
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358 | (3) |
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Appendix to Chapter 4: The Distribution of Power in Democracy |
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361 | (20) |
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361 | (1) |
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Probabilistic Voting Models |
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361 | (6) |
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367 | (6) |
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Partisan Politics and Political Capture |
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373 | (8) |
| Bibliography |
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381 | (20) |
| Index |
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401 | |